Trump says oil and stock market reaction to Iran conflict not as severe as he expected

President Donald Trump said Thursday that neither the spike in oil prices nor the slump in the stock market during the Iran war were as bad he had anticipated.

In a Cabinet meeting, Trump expressed confidence in the war effort and said the economic damage will reverse.

Addressing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the president said oil prices “have not gone up as much as I thought, Scott, to be honest with you. It’s all going to come back down to where it was and probably lower.”

Markets have whipsawed on geopolitical signals, turning on any signs of progress or intensity of the war.

U.S. crude prices flirted with $100 a barrel earlier in the conflict but have come down as Trump has insisted that the fighting will end soon. In all, though, oil prices have surged more than 40% during the war, driving up the price of gasoline by more than $1 a gallon.

On the stock market, the S&P 500 is off 4.8% in March and 6.5% from its record high earlier this year.

Both metrics are benchmarks for how Trump views his economic successes. He harshly criticized former President Joe Biden when gas prices soared under his watch, and Trump has repeatedly noted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 50,000 in early February.

Trump has said the economic damage will reverse once the war ends.

“My predictions have been right,” he said.

Nevertheless, Wall Street economists in recent days have raised the odds of a recession over the next 12 months, with most contending that unless the war ends soon, the damage to the economy through inflation and oil-related repercussions will cause a contraction.

Major averages were negative as Trump spoke while oil rose more than 4%. Earlier in the day, Trump posted on social media that Iranian negotiators “better get serious, before it is too late.”